Iran leadership change by December 31?

Iran leadership change by December 31 — 28% YES

At 28%, the market currently views a leadership change in Iran by year-end as an underdog event, with implied odds of roughly 2.5-to-1 against it occurring. The essentially flat movement over the last 24 hours suggests this collective judgment is stable, not a reaction to recent news. With nearly $3 million traded, there's solid conviction behind this price, indicating it's not easily swayed by small trades. Without a resolution date, the market has an open-ended timeline, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment as events unfold.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$3.0M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source