Iran leadership change by June 30?

Iran leadership change by June 30 — 5% YES

The market assigns a mere 5% probability to a change in Iran's leadership by June 30th, firmly establishing this as a deep longshot with implied odds of roughly 20.7-to-1 against. This price reflects a collective judgment that such an event is highly improbable, a conviction that has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, indicating no significant shift in sentiment. With over $2.8 million traded, the market's low probability assessment is backed by solid participation, suggesting a confident and well-established price rather than one easily swayed by thin trading.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$4.4M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source