Iran nuclear test before 2027?
8%chance of Yes
+3%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Iran nuclear test before 2027 at 8%
On Polymarket, "Iran nuclear test before 2027?" is trading at 8% YES with $228,018 in volume. It's moved +3% in the last 24h.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $228K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $4.0K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked
What is the "Iran nuclear test before 2027?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Iran nuclear test before 2027?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 8%, which makes it a long shot — the crowd gives it only about a 8% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
