Iran successfully targets shipping on July 22 at 1%
On Polymarket, "Iran successfully targets shipping on July 22?" is trading at 1% YES with $489 in volume. It's moved -4% in the last 24h.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to βNoβ.
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Iran successfully targets shipping on July 22?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history β we don't run the market or take bets.
Right now YES is trading at 1%, which makes it a long shot β the crowd gives it only about a 1% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool β we don't accept bets or hold funds.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Jul 22, 2026. The odds tend to converge toward 0% or 100% as that date approaches and the outcome becomes clear.
Per Polymarket's rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by β¦
About $489 has been traded on it (public on-chain volume). Heavier volume generally means a more confident, harder-to-move price.
No. WyldMarkets is an information and research tool. The odds show what a crowd of traders currently believes β they are not a recommendation, and nothing here is financial advice.