Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Israel closes its airspace by June 15 — 27% YES

At 27%, the market treats Israel closing its airspace by June 15th as a clear underdog, with implied odds of roughly 2.8-to-1 against it occurring. The significant 20-point jump over the past 24 hours, backed by over $2.2 million in trading volume, indicates a genuine and substantial shift in collective conviction, rather than mere market noise. This suggests a growing, albeit still minority, belief in the possibility of such an event, though the absence of a resolution rule means the specific trigger for a "Yes" payout remains undefined.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$2.2M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source