Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Israel closes its airspace by June 30 — 37% YES

This market, currently pricing a 37% chance of Israel closing its airspace, suggests the crowd views this as a longshot, with implied odds of about 1.7-to-1 against it occurring. The significant 25-point surge over the past 24 hours indicates a substantial shift in collective conviction, moving from a very low probability to a more plausible, though still unlikely, outcome. With over $1 million traded, this price reflects solid participation and therefore a reasonably confident collective judgment, despite the recent volatility. The absence of a resolution date means there's ample time for further price movement as events unfold.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$1.0M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source