Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
22%chance of Yes
-4%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026 — 22% YES
At 22%, the market views an Israeli strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026, as a clear longshot, with implied odds of roughly 3.5-to-1 against. The 4-point drop over the past 24 hours, on the back of nearly $78,000 in trading, suggests a genuine, albeit modest, shift in collective conviction away from a strike, rather than mere market noise. With over $700,000 traded overall, this price reflects solid participation, indicating a reasonably confident collective judgment, and the resolution date being over two years away means there is ample time for this price to evolve. For a "Yes" resolution, Israel must initiate a drone, missile, or air strike impacting Yemeni soil or an official Yemeni embassy/consulate by the specified date.
💬 Ask this market
PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $729K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $77.8K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
More in Markets
View all →
Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
