Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 — 4% YES

This market, currently pricing a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran at a 4% probability, reflects a deep longshot in the collective judgment, with implied odds of roughly 26.8-to-1 against. Despite this low probability, the substantial trading volume of over $2.8 million indicates solid conviction behind this assessment, suggesting it's not merely a speculative price. The essentially flat 24-hour movement further reinforces that this low likelihood is a stable consensus, rather than a fleeting sentiment. With no resolution date provided, the market has an open-ended timeline for this highly improbable outcome.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$8.5M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source