Kash Patel out by December 31?
56%chance of Yes
+3%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIKash Patel out by December 31 — 56% YES
The market currently prices Kash Patel's departure as Director of the FBI by year-end as a moderate favorite, with implied odds of roughly 1.3-to-1 in favor of his exit. The recent 3-point uptick is likely noise rather than a significant shift in conviction, especially given the extremely thin trading volume over the last 24 hours, suggesting this price is tentative and could easily swing. With resolution still seven months away, there's ample time for the odds to fluctuate, and a "Yes" resolution simply requires Patel to cease being the Director for any reason before December 31st, 11:59 PM ET.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $226K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $264
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
