Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30 — 4% YES

This market, currently at 4%, indicates the crowd views Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control as a deep longshot, implying roughly 25-to-1 odds against such an event. The 1-point increase over the past 24 hours is likely just market noise and not a significant shift in conviction. With over $7 million traded, this price reflects strong collective confidence, suggesting the market is firmly settled on this low probability. The absence of a resolution date means this longshot status could persist indefinitely, barring a major, unforeseen development.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$8.3M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source