Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
14%chance of Yes
-2%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027 at 14%
On Polymarket, "Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?" is trading at 14% YES with $14,442 in volume. It's moved -2% in the last 24h.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $14.4K
- traded all-time
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Frequently asked
What is the "Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 14%, which makes it an underdog — the crowd puts the odds around 14%. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
