SBF released from custody in 2026?
5%chance of Yes
-1%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
SBF released from custody in 2026 at 5%
On Polymarket, "SBF released from custody in 2026?" is trading at 5% YES with $411,171 in volume.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $411K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $5.2K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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