Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June — 10% YES

At 10%, the market views a return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by June 30th as a significant longshot, with the crowd collectively judging the odds at roughly 9.5-to-1 against. This price, having remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours despite heavy trading volume exceeding $15 million overall, reflects a confident and stable consensus. Given the resolution rule requires the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls to hit 60 by the end of June, and with only about 20 days remaining, the market's low price suggests a strong belief that this specific threshold will not be met in the near term.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$40.1M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source