US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30 — 65% YES

The market currently prices a new US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension by June 30th as a moderate favorite at 65%, implying roughly 1.9-to-1 odds in its favor. This isn't a near-lock, but the significant 28-point jump in the last 24 hours, alongside over $2.5 million in traded volume, indicates a strong and sudden shift in collective conviction towards a "Yes" outcome. Given the solid participation and sharp upward movement, this price reflects a meaningful change in market sentiment, rather than mere noise, suggesting traders are increasingly confident in such an announcement.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$2.5M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source