US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30 — 68% YES

The market currently places the probability of a new US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension by June 30th at 68%, making it a moderate favorite with implied odds of roughly 2.1-to-1 in favor. This price reflects a significant shift in collective conviction, having surged 31 points in the last 24 hours, indicating a real change in market sentiment rather than mere noise. With over $2.3 million traded, the solid participation suggests this 68% figure is backed by substantial liquidity and reflects a confident, rather than easily swayed, market judgment. The absence of a specified resolution date means there is still an open timeline for this event to unfold.

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Key facts

Total volume

$2.4M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source