US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30 — 3% YES

The market currently prices the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by June 30th as a deep longshot, with only a 3% chance, implying collective judgment that this outcome is highly improbable. This price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, suggesting no real shift in conviction despite the significant $2.5 million in trading volume, which indicates solid participation and a relatively confident, stable price. Without a specified resolution date, the market's current low probability could still be subject to change over an unknown timeframe.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$4.5M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source