US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026 — 66% YES

The market currently prices a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by December 31, 2026, at 66%, indicating the crowd views this as a moderate favorite with roughly 1.9-to-1 odds in its favor. This price has held remarkably steady over the past week, barely budging from 69% down to 68% and then holding firm, suggesting a strong consensus among participants. With over $9 million traded, this is a high-conviction price, reflecting significant collective judgment and making it less susceptible to sudden swings. The market has ample time until the end of 2026 for events to unfold, leaving considerable room for future price movement despite the current stability.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$14.4M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source