US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026 — 91% YES

The market currently prices a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by June 15, 2026, as a near-lock at 91%, implying roughly 10.6-to-1 odds in favor. This represents a dramatic shift in conviction, with the price surging 78 points in the last 24 hours, indicating a significant re-evaluation by participants. With over $66 million traded, this high level of liquidity suggests strong collective confidence behind the current pricing. The absence of a resolution rule means the specific conditions for a "Yes" payout are not defined, adding a layer of ambiguity to the market's ultimate settlement.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$177.1M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source