Will Alberta join the US?
3%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
✨ AIUpdated 44d agoWill Alberta join the US? — 4% YES
With a price of 4%, the market views Alberta joining the US as a deep longshot, implying roughly 23.7-to-1 odds against such an event. The essentially flat 24-hour movement suggests no significant shift in this conviction, indicating the current low probability is well-established. Solid participation with over $2 million traded lends confidence to this price, reflecting a collective judgment rather than thin trading noise. While no resolution date is provided, the current price firmly indicates the market sees this as highly improbable.
AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $2.2M
- traded all-time
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
