Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027 at 24%
On Polymarket, "Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?" is trading at 24% YES with $334,541 in volume.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to βNoβ. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history β we don't run the market or take bets.
Right now YES is trading at 24%, which makes it an underdog β the crowd puts the odds around 24%. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool β we don't accept bets or hold funds.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Dec 31, 2026. The odds tend to converge toward 0% or 100% as that date approaches and the outcome becomes clear.
Per Polymarket's rules: For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaβ¦
About $335K has been traded on it (public on-chain volume). Heavier volume generally means a more confident, harder-to-move price.
No. WyldMarkets is an information and research tool. The odds show what a crowd of traders currently believes β they are not a recommendation, and nothing here is financial advice.