Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — 12% YES

At 12%, the market views Apple being the largest company by market cap on December 31st as a significant longshot, with implied odds of roughly 7.6-to-1 against. The recent 2-point dip is likely noise rather than a meaningful shift in conviction, especially given the thin $1,347 traded in the last 24 hours against a total volume of over $380,000, suggesting a tentative price easily swayed by modest flow. With roughly seven months until resolution, there's ample time for this price to fluctuate as new information emerges, and for YES to pay out, Apple must simply hold the top market capitalization spot at the close of trading on December 31, 2026, according to a consensus of credible reporting.

Key facts

Total volume

$383K

traded all-time

24h volume

$1.3K

last 24 hours

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

settlement date

Market

Polymarket

data source