Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Why it's moving
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026 at 1%
On Polymarket, "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?" is trading at 1% YES with $9.8M in volume.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Topic view (consensus across every source for this question) arrives with the entity-resolution service.