Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June β 15% YES
The recent 8-point increase in the "YES" probability for crude oil hitting $115 by the end of June is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Renewed military actions between the United States and Iran, including US strikes on Iranian targets and Iran's reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have heightened concerns over global energy supply disruptions. This comes alongside a seventh consecutive weekly draw in US crude inventories, further tightening supply conditions and contributing to upward pressure on oil prices.
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