Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair β 0% YES
The market currently prices a potential Elon Musk acquisition of Ryanair at 0%, indicating it's considered a deep longshot with implied odds of roughly 99-to-1 against. This price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, suggesting no significant shift in collective conviction. With over $3.4 million in total volume, but only $6,689 traded in the last day, the current 0% price is well-established, yet recent activity is thin enough that a sudden, high-volume trade could still move it. For a "Yes" resolution, credible reporting must confirm an agreement for Elon Musk, personally or via a majority-owned entity, to buy Ryanair by June 30, 2026.
On January 16, Elon Musk posted that buying Ryanair might be a "good idea." You can read more about that here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299 This market will resolve to βYesβ if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led or majority owned by him, enters into an agreement to buy Ryanair by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to βNoβ. An announced agreement between Elon Musk and Ryanair will qualify for a βYesβ resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. An agreement to merge with a qualifying entity will count toward "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk and Ryanair, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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