Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
14%chance of Yes
-3%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 at 14%
On Polymarket, "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?" is trading at 14% YES with $12,846 in volume. It's moved -3% in the last 24h.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $12.8K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $218
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 14%, which makes it an underdog — the crowd puts the odds around 14%. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
