Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
8%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31 at 8%
On Polymarket, "Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?" is trading at 8% YES with $2.1M in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $2.1M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $128
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Mar 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 8%, which makes it a long shot — the crowd gives it only about a 8% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
