Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?
0%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill Israel strike 13 countries in 2026 — 0% YES
The market currently prices a "Yes" resolution at 0%, indicating it's considered a deep longshot with implied odds of roughly 99.0-to-1 against. This price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, suggesting no real shift in conviction despite the low volume of $161,965 traded, which points to thin participation and a tentative price that could swing significantly on modest flow. With approximately seven months until resolution, there is still ample time for this price to move, though for a "Yes" to pay out, Israel must initiate drone, missile, or air strikes in 13 distinct countries' sovereign territory, excluding its own and the West Bank, between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $162K
- traded all-time
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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