Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5%chance of Yes
-0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 at 5%
On Polymarket, "Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" is trading at 5% YES with $789,326 in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $789K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $654
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Oct 10, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 5%, which makes it a long shot — the crowd gives it only about a 5% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
