Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
8%chance of Yes
-1%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026 at 8%
On Polymarket, "Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?" is trading at 8% YES with $184,526 in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $185K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $3.9K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2025
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 8%, which makes it a long shot — the crowd gives it only about a 8% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
