Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
9%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will Russia invade another country in 2026 at 9%
On Polymarket, "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?" is trading at 9% YES with $348,441 in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $348K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $3.2K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 9%, which makes it a long shot — the crowd gives it only about a 9% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
