Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?
5%chance of Yes
-0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T at 5%
On Polymarket, "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?" is trading at 5% YES with $1,434 in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $1.4K
- traded all-time
- Resolves
- Feb 28, 2027
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 5%, which makes it a long shot — the crowd gives it only about a 5% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
