Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
14%chance of Yes
+3%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
✨ AIUpdated 44d agoWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026 — 22% YES
The market currently prices a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 as a clear longshot at 22%, implying about 3.7-to-1 odds against it occurring. This price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, suggesting no recent shift in collective conviction despite solid overall participation of over $2.7 million traded. With roughly seven months until resolution, and a clear rule that requires a military offensive to establish control over Cuban land, there remains ample time for this price to fluctuate significantly.
AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $3.2M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $6.2K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
