Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?
60%chance of Yes
-3%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026 at 60%
On Polymarket, "Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?" is trading at 60% YES with $4,855 in volume. It's moved -3% in the last 24h.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $4.9K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $49
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jul 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 60%, which makes it close to a coin-flip at about 60%. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
