Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
5%chance of Yes
-0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill US withdraw from NATO before 2027 — 5% YES
At 5%, the market views a US withdrawal from NATO by 2027 as a deep longshot, implying a collective judgment that this outcome is highly improbable. Despite solid overall participation with over $1.1 million traded, the price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, suggesting no significant shift in conviction. With roughly seven months until resolution, there's still ample time for the price to react to new information, but for "Yes" to pay out, the US must formally initiate withdrawal or provide official denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $1.2M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $6.5K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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