Biggest Movers

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Why: This market, currently pricing a 37% chance of Israel closing its airspace, suggests the crowd views this as a longshot, with implied odds of about 1.7-to-1 against it occurring. The significant 25-point surge over the past 24 hours indicates a substantial shift in collective conviction, moving from a very low probability to a more plausible, though still unlikely, outcome. With over $1 million traded, this price reflects solid participation and therefore a reasonably confident collective judgment, despite the recent volatility. The absence of a resolution date means there's ample time for further price movement as events unfold.

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Why: The market currently prices a Starmer exit by June 30, 2026, as a strong favorite at 89%, implying nearly 8-to-1 odds in favor of this outcome. This isn't just a slight lean; the 22-point surge over the past 24 hours, backed by over $7 million in trading volume, indicates a significant and confident shift in collective conviction, not mere noise. While the specific resolution rule isn't provided, this high-conviction price suggests the crowd sees a clear path to Starmer's departure within the given timeframe. With no resolution date given, the market has ample time to react to developments, but the current price reflects a strong and well-funded belief.

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Why: At 27%, the market treats Israel closing its airspace by June 15th as a clear underdog, with implied odds of roughly 2.8-to-1 against it occurring. The significant 20-point jump over the past 24 hours, backed by over $2.2 million in trading volume, indicates a genuine and substantial shift in collective conviction, rather than mere market noise. This suggests a growing, albeit still minority, belief in the possibility of such an event, though the absence of a resolution rule means the specific trigger for a "Yes" payout remains undefined.

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?

Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?

Why: The 15-point drop in the "Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?" Polymarket is likely driven by New Zealand's 2-2 draw against Iran in their opening FIFA World Cup 2026 group stage match on June 15, 2026. A draw means New Zealand did not secure a win, directly impacting the "YES" outcome of the prediction market. The market's low 7% YES trading value reflects the unlikelihood of a win following this result.

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Why: The market on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 is currently priced as a near-lock at 95%, implying a strong collective judgment that such a deal will materialize. This 14-point surge over the past 24 hours represents a significant shift in conviction, rather than mere market noise, suggesting a recent development has substantially increased perceived likelihood. With over $2.3 million traded, the market exhibits solid participation, indicating this high probability is backed by considerable collective confidence. The absence of a specific resolution date means the market has an open-ended timeline, allowing for continued price adjustments as events unfold.

Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?