Biggest Movers

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?

Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Why: This market, currently at 4%, indicates the crowd views Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control as a deep longshot, implying roughly 25-to-1 odds against such an event. The 1-point increase over the past 24 hours is likely just market noise and not a significant shift in conviction. With over $7 million traded, this price reflects strong collective confidence, suggesting the market is firmly settled on this low probability. The absence of a resolution date means this longshot status could persist indefinitely, barring a major, unforeseen development.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?