Biggest Movers

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Why: The market currently prices J.D. Vance's 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 34%, treating it as a longshot with implied odds of roughly 2-to-1 against. This price reflects a confident collective judgment, given the heavy overall trading volume of over $13 million. The recent 4-point increase over 24 hours, while a notable shift, occurs with plenty of time remaining until resolution in approximately 29 months, allowing for significant future movement. For a "Yes" resolution, Vance must win and accept the Republican Party's 2028 U.S. presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources.

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Why: The recent 9-point surge in the "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" Polymarket reflects a significant escalation in direct military conflict between the two nations. This move is driven by multiple US airstrikes on Iranian military targets, which the US described as a "proportional response" to Iran's "unwarranted and continued aggression" following the downing of a US Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has retaliated with strikes on US bases in the region, further intensifying hostilities and leading President Trump to warn that Iran would "pay the price" for stalled negotiations.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Why: At 39%, the market views a US strike on Cuba by year-end as a longshot, with implied odds of roughly 1.6-to-1 against it occurring. This price has held essentially flat over the past 24 hours, suggesting no recent shift in collective conviction despite solid overall participation of over $3.7 million traded. With seven months remaining until resolution, there's ample time for this price to fluctuate, but for "Yes" to pay out, a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike must be credibly reported on Cuban soil by December 31st.

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Why: At 41%, the market suggests it's less likely than not that Bitcoin will dip to $45,000, with the crowd collectively giving it roughly 1.5-to-1 odds against. The slight 3-point dip over the past 24 hours appears to be mere noise rather than a significant shift in conviction, especially given the solid $2.97 million in trading volume which indicates a reasonably confident price. Without a specified resolution date, the market has an open-ended timeline, allowing for potential price shifts over an extended period.

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?