Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
30%chance of Yes
-1%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill 2026 be the hottest year on record — 30% YES
The market currently prices 2026 as a longshot to be the hottest year on record, with a 30% chance implying roughly 2.4-to-1 odds against. This price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, indicating no recent shift in collective conviction. However, with only $241 traded in the last day out of a total of nearly half a million dollars, the current price is tentative and could easily swing on modest new flow, especially with seven months remaining until resolution. For a "Yes" payout, 2026 must be numerically ranked as the hottest year in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $477K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $241
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
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Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
