Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
3%chance of Yes
+0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026 at 3%
On Polymarket, "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?" is trading at 3% YES with $855,672 in volume.
💬 Ask this market
PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $856K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $600
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
More in Markets
View all →
Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
