Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
2%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026 at 2%
On Polymarket, "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?" is trading at 2% YES with $1.4M in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $1.4M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $821
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 2%, which makes it a long shot — the crowd gives it only about a 2% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
