Arbguy

Milky-Morbidity0x53e5…6177Polymarket

betmoar-88600

Portfolio value

$373K

Trader style

✨ AI

Arbguy is a highly concentrated political and geopolitical longshot chaser, with a significant focus on US-Iran relations and 2026 US elections. They actively manage their book, often betting against the dominant party in 2026 US election markets.

AI-inferred from public on-chain positions — not financial advice.

Open positions

25 held

Open exposure

$373K

value at risk now

Unrealized P/L

+$36.5K

+10.9% on cost

In profit

12 / 25

positions in the green

Markets

distinct bets open

SideMarketMarket nowPositionUnrealized

YES

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Resolves Jun 15, 2026

Now 26%$122K+$79.0K (+182%)

26%$122K+$79.0K+182%YES

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Resolves May 31, 2026

Now 52%$110K+$36.7K (+50%)

52%$110K+$36.7K+50%YES

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Now 56%$31.9K+$4.2K (+15%)

56%$31.9K+$4.2K+15%YES

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Now 83%$19.4K+$112 (+1%)

83%$19.4K+$112+1%YES

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Resolves Nov 7, 2028

Now 2%$16.5K+$4.6K (+38%)

2%$16.5K+$4.6K+38%YES

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026

Now 13%$13.3K+$1.5K (+12%)

13%$13.3K+$1.5K+12%YES

Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Resolves Nov 7, 2028

Now 1%$12.1K+$1.4K (+13%)

1%$12.1K+$1.4K+13%YES

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Now 50%$9.9K−$3.9K (−28%)

50%$9.9K−$3.9K−28%NO

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Now 83%$8.3K−$251 (−3%)

83%$8.3K−$251−3%NO

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Now 56%$7.2K+$861 (+14%)

56%$7.2K+$861+14%YES

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Resolves May 29, 2026

Now 52%$7.1K+$3.7K (+110%)

52%$7.1K+$3.7K+110%YES

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026

Now 22%$3.7K+$338 (+10%)

22%$3.7K+$338+10%YES

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026

Now 1%$3.3K−$48.1K (−93%)

1%$3.3K−$48.1K−93%YES

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026

Now 8%$3.0K−$14.9K (−83%)

8%$3.0K−$14.9K−83%YES

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026

Now 8%$1.7K−$2.6K (−60%)

8%$1.7K−$2.6K−60%

Positions 1–15 of 25, largest first

1 / 2

Recent trades

WHALE MOVE

Arbguy just placed $149 on YES

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

viaPolymarket6h ago

WHALE MOVE

Arbguy just placed $390 on YES

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

viaPolymarket20h ago

WHALE MOVE

Arbguy just placed $1.1K on YES

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Polymarket trader identities, positions, and trades are public, on-chain data — we surface the same information Polymarket publishes. WyldMarkets is not affiliated with this trader. This is not financial advice; copying another trader's bets is risky.