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Politics Index

Live odds on elections, presidential races, control of Congress, geopolitics, and policy decisions — aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi. See what traders are actually betting on, ranked by volume.

16index level
+0%24h · avg YES across 50 markets
Basket volume
$238.3M

Index over time

composite level
Not enough history yet.

In the Politics basket · 50 markets

PoliticsPolymarket

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

6%YES
+0%
Volume
$33.8M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

12%YES
-1%
Volume
$20.0M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

15%YES
+1%
Volume
$16.9M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

15%YES
+0%
Volume
$13.6M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

5%YES
+0%
Volume
$12.0M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

3%YES
+1%
Volume
$11.8M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

15%YES
-1%
Volume
$10.5M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Trump out as President before 2027?

11%YES
Volume
$9.0M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

3%YES
+0%
Volume
$8.8M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

2%YES
Volume
$8.7M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

5%YES
-0%
Volume
$7.8M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

9%YES
Volume
$7.2M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

12%YES
-2%
Volume
$6.9M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

29%YES
+2%
Volume
$6.5M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

48%YES
-3%
Volume
$6.4M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

4%YES
+0%
Volume
$4.6M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

2%YES
-0%
Volume
$4.6M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

59%YES
+2%
Volume
$3.8M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

9%YES
Volume
$3.6M
Source
Polymarket
PoliticsPolymarket

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

72%YES
+6%
Volume
$3.4M
Source
Polymarket

The index level is the volume‑weighted average YES probability across the basket — a directional read on the theme, not a tradable price. WyldMarkets is a research tool, not financial advice.