Tenebrus7

Natural-Vacation0xa8c6…44e8Polymarket

Portfolio value

$264K

Trader style

✨ AI

Tenebrus7 primarily bets on geopolitical stability and the absence of extreme events, particularly concerning Iran and US foreign policy, overwhelmingly favoring "NO" outcomes on high-odds markets. This trader is highly selective, with a concentrated book, and actively manages positions, frequently selling.

AI-inferred from public on-chain positions — not financial advice.

Open positions

199 held

Open exposure

$264K

value at risk now

Unrealized P/L

+$2.1K

+0.8% on cost

In profit

122 / 199

positions in the green

Markets

199

distinct positions open

SideMarketMarket nowPositionUnrealized

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 95%$16.2K+$2.0K (+14%)

95%$16.2K+$2.0K+14%NO

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 73%$15.9K−$1.2K (−7%)

73%$15.9K−$1.2K−7%NO

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 95%$13.9K+$632 (+5%)

95%$13.9K+$632+5%NO

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 95%$9.1K+$232 (+3%)

95%$9.1K+$232+3%NO

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 92%$8.5K+$160 (+2%)

92%$8.5K+$160+2%NO

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 77%$7.7K+$863 (+13%)

77%$7.7K+$863+13%NO

Iran leadership change by July 31?

Resolves Jul 31, 2026

Now 98%$7.0K+$248 (+4%)

98%$7.0K+$248+4%NO

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 94%$6.9K+$636 (+10%)

94%$6.9K+$636+10%NO

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Resolves Jul 29, 2026

Now 75%$5.9K−$512 (−8%)

75%$5.9K−$512−8%NO

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Resolves Oct 4, 2026

Now 90%$5.3K−$8 (−0%)

90%$5.3K−$8−0%YES

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Now 41%$4.8K+$34 (+1%)

41%$4.8K+$34+1%NO

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 97%$4.7K−$28 (−1%)

97%$4.7K−$28−1%NO

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 79%$4.3K+$990 (+30%)

79%$4.3K+$990+30%NO

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 75%$3.9K−$539 (−12%)

75%$3.9K−$539−12%NO

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Resolves Apr 30, 2026

Now 78%$3.8K−$210 (−5%)

78%$3.8K−$210−5%

Positions 1–15 of 199, largest first

1 / 14

Recent trades

WHALE MOVE

Tenebrus7 just placed $7 on YES

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

viaPolymarket18 min ago

WHALE MOVE

Tenebrus7 just placed $3.1K on YES

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

viaPolymarket39 min ago

WHALE MOVE

Tenebrus7 just placed $607 on NO

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

via

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