Diligent-Scenario is a highly concentrated geopolitical risk analyst, predominantly betting against major international conflicts and political upheavals, especially concerning China and Taiwan. They are a contrarian, almost exclusively betting "NO" on high-impact events, actively trading to maintain their positions.
AI-inferred from public on-chain positions — not financial advice.
Showing the 15 largest of 19 open positions by value.
Diligent-Scenario just placed $151 on NO
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Diligent-Scenario just placed $429 on NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $95 on NO
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Polymarket trader identities, positions, and trades are public, on-chain data — we surface the same information Polymarket publishes. WyldMarkets is not affiliated with this trader. This is not financial advice; copying another trader's bets is risky.
Diligent-Scenario just placed $278 on NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Diligent-Scenario just placed $296 on NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $1 on YES
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $99 on NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $569 on NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $18 on NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $22 on YES
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $160 on NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $99 on NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $30 on NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $3 on YES
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Diligent-Scenario just placed $2 on YES
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Diligent-Scenario just placed $37 on NO
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $44 on NO
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $96 on NO
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $103 on NO
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $115 on NO
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $375 on NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $2 on NO
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $206 on NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $2 on YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Diligent-Scenario just placed $97 on NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Diligent-Scenario just placed $45 on NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $99 on NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $410 on NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $98 on NO
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $94 on NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $10 on NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $62 on NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $30 on NO
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?Diligent-Scenario just placed $43 on NO
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $23 on NO
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $196 on NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $434 on NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $196 on NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Diligent-Scenario just placed $277 on NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?