Threadbare-Signal

0xb886…81b3Polymarket

Portfolio value

$171K

Trader style

✨ AI

Threadbare-Signal is a highly concentrated political speculator, predominantly betting on geopolitical conflicts and invasions, particularly regarding China and Taiwan. They actively chase longshots, favoring "YES" outcomes on high-impact, low-probability events, with a significant portion of their book dedicated to a few key positions.

AI-inferred from public on-chain positions — not financial advice.

Open positions

159 held

Open exposure

$171K

value at risk now

Unrealized P/L

−$16.2K

−8.6% on cost

In profit

77 / 159

positions in the green

Markets

159

distinct bets open

SideMarketMarket nowPositionUnrealized

YES

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 7%$39.6K−$5.6K (−12%)

7%$39.6K−$5.6K−12%YES

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 43%$23.8K+$4.6K (+24%)

43%$23.8K+$4.6K+24%YES

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 17%$11.0K−$4.9K (−31%)

17%$11.0K−$4.9K−31%YES

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 9%$8.9K+$85 (+1%)

9%$8.9K+$85+1%YES

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 20%$8.9K−$530 (−6%)

20%$8.9K−$530−6%NO

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 28%$8.5K−$2.8K (−25%)

28%$8.5K−$2.8K−25%YES

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026

Now 10%$8.0K+$2.6K (+49%)

10%$8.0K+$2.6K+49%YES

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Now 16%$7.9K−$1.1K (−12%)

16%$7.9K−$1.1K−12%YES

Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Resolves Oct 4, 2026

Now 2%$6.4K+$2.0K (+46%)

2%$6.4K+$2.0K+46%YES

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 47%$4.6K+$87 (+2%)

47%$4.6K+$87+2%YES

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 13%$4.5K−$463 (−9%)

13%$4.5K−$463−9%YES

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 10%$4.3K−$1.0K (−19%)

10%$4.3K−$1.0K−19%YES

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Resolves Jun 30, 2027

Now 13%$2.4K−$23 (−1%)

13%$2.4K−$23−1%YES

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Now 3%$2.3K−$1.6K (−40%)

3%$2.3K−$1.6K−40%YES

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 22%$2.1K−$74 (−3%)

22%$2.1K−$74−3%

Positions 1–15 of 159, largest first

1 / 11

Recent trades

WHALE MOVE

Threadbare-Signal just placed $33 on YES

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

viaPolymarket1d ago

WHALE MOVE

Threadbare-Signal just placed $41 on YES

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

viaPolymarket1d ago

WHALE MOVE

Threadbare-Signal just placed $5 on YES

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Polymarket trader identities, positions, and trades are public, on-chain data — we surface the same information Polymarket publishes. WyldMarkets is not affiliated with this trader. This is not financial advice; copying another trader's bets is risky.